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We Predicted the Outcome of NAFTA 2.0 – And WE NAILED IT!
They say that pride is a deadly sin but we can’t help but crow about our prediction of the outcome of the US-Mexico-Canada trade negotiations and the results for Canada. Here is what we predicted on 8/28/2018.
"NAFTA will survive but it will change. Our milk and cheese will likely be cheaper in the near future but it will be tough days ahead for many family farms."
Read the entire blog here:
And as we predicted, while there are certainly some changes in the Free Trade Agreement, they are relatively minor changes – the core of the agreement remains intact (even if the name will be changed).
Most of the substantive changes come at the expense of Mexico, such as increases in minimum wages for auto plants, which is intended to shift production from Mexico to the United States (or Canada). But Canada made some concessions too, including an increase in the duration of patent protection for drugs (keeping the costs higher longer) and, as we predicted, increased access to the Canadian dairy market (and other markets including wine).
But most people in Canada are breathing a sigh of relief as the United States certainly had the leverage to extract even more concessions from Canada. And while the impacts of the changes to the agreement will have a minor impact on the Canadian economy overall, I’m still worried about those small family dairy farms.
Now Trump will turn his attention to tackling China and, as Canadians, we can be happy we dodged the Trump bullet.